E-tail prices can trim CPI by 25bps: SBI Research
Industry Trends
ram@justransact.com
24-10-2015 00:00:00
E-tail prices can trim CPI by 25bps: SBI Research
With booming e-retail market, prices offered by e-retailers should be included while calculating retail inflation as rising online shopping may be understating the actual price index (CPI) by as much as 0.25 per cent, according to a report.

SBI Research in its recent report, said, the e-retailing, which forms online marketplaces and online retail as its major composition, has become growing at faster pace in the larger market with CAGR of around 56 per cent during 2009-14.

According to latest calculations, the e-retail market is currently valued around USD 6 billion.

"Our latest research shows that by just considering discount prices for a select group of products, CPI inflation index would be at least 25 bps lower that the actual CPI numbers arrived at using normal methods," SBI Research revealed in its Ecowrap report.

Accordingly, the CPI inflation index may not be accurate due to different inflation estimation biases, in which e-commerce is one among them, ET quoting the report, said.

"A potential source of bias can arise when shifts to lower price discount outlets are inadequately reflected," the report said.

Books, apparel and accessories and electronics are the largest selling products on the online retailing platforms, constituting around 80 per cent of the volume.

"The increasing use of smartphones, tablets and broadband and 3G/4G has led to developing a strong consumer base which is likely to increase further. So, there is a need to include the prices charged by the e-retailers like Flipkart, Snapdeal, Amazon etc, while calculating the CPI index, and if done so there may be a downward bias," it said.

According to the minutes of the RBI's Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) held before the September 29 policy, "vendors engaged in e-commerce offering low prices, retail inflation may be lower than what the headline number suggests".

It can be recalled that the top three e-commerce companies -- Flipkart, Amazon and Snapdeal's -- are running mega discount sales now, and typically these e-retailers net 30-40 per cent of their annual sale during this season.

Apart from the evergreen product categories like electronics (including mobiles) and apparel, there is an emergence of new categories like home and kitchen and furniture, which have seen huge traction in the current year.

Flipkart is offering over 30 million products across over 70 categories, including books, media, consumer electronics and lifestyle.

Flipkart claimed that it managed to sell 10 lakh units within the first 10 hours as part of its 'The Big Billion Day's Sale', out of which 75 per cent of the phones sold during were 4G phones.

Further, Amazon increased total number of unique products to 30 million from 18 million and Snapdeal has put together 15 million unique products.

The findings are based on a price index developed by SBI Research which takes into account the prices being offered by online mega-stores and a re-estimated CPI inflation based on this probabilities.

"Our results indicate that only by considering the discount prices and that too for a select group of products, CPI inflation would be at least 25 bps lower that the actual CPI numbers," it said.

It said there are enough reasons for a continued accommodative monetary policy on the part of RBI.
-K Ramanathan ram@justransact.com


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